Did you know that the world population increases by 83 million people annually? The global population is estimated to hit 8.6 billion in 2030. That's a lot of people, right? Did you also know that almost 10% of the world's population still lives on less than $2 a day? Much of our world is still developing, however, what exactly does that have to do with population? Are there correlations between population and development? Why is this question important? What are the factors that influence this relationship? Dive on in to find out.
Population and Development
Population and development go hand in hand, especially for us geographers. Population levels are a great way to indicate development levels.
Population refers to the total number of people inhabiting an area (such as a city, country, or the world), and is continually being modified by rises (such as births and migration inflows) and falls (such as deaths and migration outflows).
Rapid Population Growth began in the 18th century, and since then, our global population has been steadily rising, as a result of the advancement of medicine, hygiene, and food production systems, as well as increased birth rates.
The theory of overpopulation
The term overpopulation is a widely debated one. The theory of overpopulation refers to an imbalance wherein the number of people on the planet theoretically exceeds the earth's capacity to sustain them. The idea of overpopulation was coined by Thomas Malthus (a demographer from the 18th century), who said that there won't be enough resources (specifically food supply) to cater to the evergrowing population. In the 1960s, a novel named The Population Bomb set fears in motion about the overpopulation of the world; it states that overpopulation could result in starvation and environmental damage. However, the idea of overpopulation today is heavily criticised. Some say that overpopulation blames the number of people, rather than the amount of resources that are consumed, or the damage to the environment that occurs. When discussing overpopulation, people typically refer to countries like India, China, or the developing world, showing this theory to be discriminatory.
Development refers to how economically, culturally, socially, and technologically advanced a country is. Once upon a time, the world was divided into two; the Global North and Global South, based on their level of development. The Global North was seen as the richer part of the world, and the Global South as the poor. This division was illustrated by the Brandt Line.
Fig. 1 - the Brandt Line, dividing the world into the Global North and Global South.
Now, the Brandt Line has become more outdated. For example, India and China are no longer considered developing countries but rather emerging economies. The World Bank now uses an alternative classification system, labelling countries as either Low-Income Countries (LICs), Middle-Income Countries (MICs), and High-Income Countries (HICs).
Newly Emerging Economies (NEEs) are those experiencing rapid development and industrialisation. Examples of these include the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), as well as countries like Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Many different measures are used to show whether countries are developed or not. Historically, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was used as the main measure of development, until critics stepped in and said there needed to be more of a focus on humans and life satisfaction, rather than just the economy. This is where the Human Development Index (HDI) came in, created by Mahbub ul Haq, and used by the United Nations, to measure development more holistically. It focuses on three main dimensions; health, knowledge, and the standard of living. You can read more about different measures of development in the Development Indicators explanation.
Population and Development Importance
So how exactly does population connect with levels of development, and why is it important? Well, this can first be demonstrated with the Demographic Transition Model (DTM). This model shows how population levels change (birth rates, death rates, total population, and natural increase), as countries become more developed.
Birth rates are the number of people born (per 1000, per year). Death rates are the number of people that die (per 1000, per year).
Fig. 2 - the demographic transition model
The DTM indicates that at stage 1, the lowest stage of development, birth rates and death rates are very high. As development improves, both birth rates and death rates gradually fall. Stage 4 is where many developed countries sit today, with stable and low birth and death rates, like the US, Australia, and the majority of Europe. The total population continues to rise until stage 5.
From the DTM, we can see that with higher development levels, birth rates and death rates go down. However, some challenges come with this. When economies reach later stages of development, the total population may begin to decline. Many advanced economies today face the problem of an ageing population (such as in Japan) and low fertility rates (such as in Sweden). We can see this possibility in stage 5, where population figures are a little unpredictable for the future.
Other models are also used to show the relationship between population and development. Population pyramids show population numbers (male and female), and age. In developing countries, there will be a higher proportion of younger people in comparison to more developed countries. The shape of the pyramid can indicate the level of development.
Population and Development Factors
We can easily come to the conclusion that development and population are intertwined. Let's take a look at some of the factors that demonstrate the relationship between population and development.
Agricultural changes
Due to technological advancements, labour becomes more efficient, and more workers can find their way into the industrial sector, leading to economic growth. The shift from an agricultural-based society, to one that has industrialised and more technologised, means that the need for labour is reduced (e.g. from children), so smaller families become more common. This can be seen in the UK as a result of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th/19th centuries.
Education
As countries develop further, education improves. Birth rates reduce due to improved education around contraception, for example. Healthcare also improves with more advanced education systems, which helps to overall reduce death rates and infant mortality rates, and improve life expectancy, so fewer people die.
Status of women
As countries develop and economic opportunities increase, women and girls are more able to seek education and employment, whereas previously they may have been seen as homemakers and child-bearers. With more women in the labour force (indicating a higher level of development), many of them decide not to have or delay having a child which reduces birth rates.
Women may also be more empowered to pursue careers and education, thus delaying their average child-bearing age. In previous decades, the average child-bearing age was between 20-25 years old, whereas now, it is 30-35.
Migration
As countries develop, they may become more attractive to people immigrating or emigrating; they may move in search of better economic or educational opportunities. Migration to a country increases the population in the host country, improves development levels, and attracts brain gain. On the flip side, though, the population in the origin country decreases, and development levels are affected; often, well-educated workers leave for other countries, causing a brain drain in the country of origin.
Immigrating means that someone is moving into a country. Emigrating means that someone is leaving a country. They can be used interchangeably to describe one person.
In the developing world, rural-urban migration (moving from rural to urban areas) is very common, and often people move to improve children's livelihoods. This means that children aren't needed for labour in more urban areas, reducing birth rates significantly.
Population and Development Sustainable Growth
In the future, more countries aim to develop and grow further. As more countries begin to develop, and the total population continues to rise (and hit predictions of over 9 billion by 2050), we need to ensure this development is happening sustainably, to protect the environment and conserve resources for the future. Due to this, the concept of sustainable development is now key.
Sustainable development refers to growth that meets our current needs without compromising the ability of our future generation, or the environment. It means growing in a way that is beneficial not only to us but to the generations to come.
It is critical that as countries develop and the population rises, sustainable development becomes the focus. Although development is seen as a positive thing, if it is unrestricted, it can cause problems for the environment and our future populations.
The United Nations produced 17 sustainable development goals in 2015 as a part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, to ensure development is undertaken in a sustainable way across the world. Some of these goals include zero hunger, gender equality, and climate action.
Population and Development - Key takeaways
- Development is how socially, economically, and culturally advanced a country is, measured by different indicators, like the GDP or HDI.
- Population and development are intertwined; this is represented by models such as the Demographic Transition Model, which shows that as development increases, birth rates and death rates (for the most part), fall.
- The theory of overpopulation is a heavily debated topic, with some saying our world is overpopulated, while others say this is a problematic and discriminatory term.
- Factors that affect population and development include agricultural changes, education, the status of women, and migration.
- Sustainable development refers to the idea that we should grow our economies responsibly to sustain our limited natural resources for future generations and the environment.
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