Explain why the following statements are true/false/uncertain.
a. With all else held constant, a firm will have a higher P/E if its beta is higher.
b. P/E will tend to be higher when ROE is higher (assuming plowback is positive).
c. P/E will tend to be higher when the plowback rate is higher.
Higher beta implies that the risk and discount code applied to cash flow is higher. In this case earnings, cash flow, and price of the firm will be lower. Hence the ratio of price to earnings will be lower. Therefore this statement is false.
Higher ROE would mean more valuable growth opportunities. Therefore this statement is true.
It depends on comparison of expected rate of return with market capitalization rate. In case the expected rate of return is higher than market capitalization rate, P/E will increase. Therefore this statement is uncertain.
Use the following case in answering Problems 29 – 32:
Mary Smith, a Level II CFA candidate, was recently hired for an analyst position at the Bank of Ireland. Her first assignment is to examine the competitive strategies employed by various French wineries.
Smith’s report identifies four wineries that are the major players in the French wine industry. The key characteristics of each are cited in Table 12.6. In the body of Smith’s report, she includes a discussion of the competitive structure of the French wine industry. She notes that over the past five years, the French wine industry has not responded to changing consumer tastes. Profit margins have declined steadily, and the number of firms representing the industry has decreased from 10 to 4. It appears that participants in the French wine industry must consolidate in order to survive.
Smith’s report notes that French consumers have strong bargaining power over the industry.
She supports this conclusion with five key points, which she labels “Bargaining Power of Buyers”:
After completing the first draft of her report, Smith takes it to her boss, RonVanDriesen, to review. VanDriesen tells her that he is a wine connoisseur himself and often makes purchases from the South Winery. Smith tells VanDriesen, “In my report, I have classified the South Winery as a stuck-in-the-middle firm. It tries to be a cost leader by selling its wine at a price that is slightly below the other firms, but it also tries to differentiate itself from its competitors by producing wine in bottles with curved necks, which increases its cost structure. The end result is that the South Winery’s profit margin gets squeezed from both sides.” VanDriesen replies, “I have met members of the management team from the South Winery at a couple of the wine conventions I have attended. I believe that the South Winery could succeed at following
both cost leadership and a differentiation strategy if its operations were separated into distinct operating units, with each unit pursuing a different competitive strategy.” Smith makes a note to do more research on generic competitive strategies to verify VanDriesen’s assertions before publishing the final draft of her report.
Which of Smith’s points effectively supports the conclusion that consumers have strong bargaining power over the industry?
Recalculate the intrinsic value of Honda using the three-stage growth model of Spreadsheet 13.1 (available at www.mhhe.com/bkm; link to Chapter 13 material). Treat each of the following scenarios independently.
a. ROE in the constant-growth period will be 9%.
b. Honda’s actual beta is .95.
c. The market risk premium is 8.5%.
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